A deep low pressure currently situated in Sask/ND will be moving through our region and stalling over NW Ontario dumping everything from heavy rains to heavy wet snow on the back side of the low. Winnipeg will be recieving anything from 50-85mm of rain, and on top of that around 5cm of accumulative snow (depending if the surface temperature will be low enough to not melt the snow) when it's all said and done. This nasty low pressure (That is forcast to be the same pressure of a catagory 3 hurricane - around 957mb!!!) will also bring very powerful winds that could be gusting to 80k/h, just below wind warning criteria. After this system moves out we can expect things to clear out but giving way to chilly days on thursday and friday with highs only reaching 1-2C.
For those trick-or-treaters out there Halloween should be around normal temperature wise, with partly cloudy skies.
Here's the current system's map combined with radar, shows deep area of low pressure moving in.
Weather Around the World
Hurricane Richard has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression after passing over Belize and losing most of it's strength due to not being over the warm Carribean waters.
In other world weather news, those living in extreme southern Ontario have a good chance of seeing strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow due to a surface front moving through. SPC has issued a 45% hatched area and state that there is a chance of isolated tornadoes.
Cool Canadian Weather Facts for the Week of October 24-31
- In 2000, Southern Quebec was hit with one of it's earliest/harshest snowstorms dumping around 40cm of snow and wind gusts topped 100k/h!!! (oct. 28)
- In 1999, it was rather a trick then a treat in Sask. when an Alberta clipper dished out several centimeters of snow and packed 110k/h winds. (oct. 31)
-Finally, in 1996, 135k/h wind gusts in southern Ontario killed 4 people and caused flooding on the Naigra River Parkway. (oct. 30)
Sources: Canadian Weather Trivia and
Stay tuned, i'll be posting more as this interesting local weather event will be unfolding...
Thanks for the link to your blog. It truly is a powerful system and it will be interesting how this all plays out. I've noticed that bloggers on the Weather Underground have been posting about this beast ever since Richard showed signs of weakening. I'd like to post a chart which shows historic values of storms of this nature, but I haven't figured out if the pixels will configure and I don't want to disable your blog.
ReplyDeleteRANK EVENT DATE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
1. Great Ohio Blizzard Jan 26, 1978 950 HPA / 28.05 inches
2. Upcoming October event Oct 26-27, 2010 959 HPA / 28.35 inches **
3. Armistice Day Storm
Anniversary Storm Nov 11, 1940
Nov 10, 1998 967 HPA / 28.55 inches
967 HPA / 28.55 inches
4. Cyclone of 1913
(aka White Hurricane) Nov 7-9, 1913 968 HPA / 28.60 inches
5. Edmund Fitzgerald Storm Nov 10, 1975 980 HPA / 28.95 inches
Credit: NOAA
Sorry for this configuration...thought I'd fixed it. Anyway, I'll be tuning in to this forum as well as to the main (Rob's) with great interest over the next couple of days. Hold on to our hats!
Thanks a lot for this interesting post cirrus, note that the pressure this morning is already 28,76 inches and with this low predicted to intensify deeply we will certainly be close to the record central pressure. We'll just have to wait and see!
ReplyDeleteGreat graphic/site. The amazing Northern Plains Winter storm Mar 04 1966 non blizzard (to warmthey said 36cms snow and winds only 113km in Winnipeg reached 980.HPA here as well .
ReplyDeleteThe pressure mentioned above in my post is for the city of Winnipeg not the center of the low for which the actual pressure is 28,53 inches (966mb).
ReplyDeleteAlso interesting situation setting up in the Midwest where tornado warnings have been issued and will probably persist throughout the afternoon. SPC has issued a 10-15% hatched area for tornadoes and 60% hatched area for damaging winds, from Windsor to the state of Kentucky. This is the cold front from the same system bringing us all of this rain/snow to come.
Amazing! This is the third consecutive year we have finished October and started the Snow season anticipating a major storm.
ReplyDeleteSee RobsBlogs Oct 28th 2009 post and comments. Intensifying storm system to bring strong winds, rain and snow to southern MB...
Yes it's interesting that this trend keeps coming up for the last couple of years. Also note that the last couple of years we have been having flooding problems in the spring, which makes it most likely that the upcoming spring 2011 we will have abundant moisture. My thoughts are that if the ground freezes shortly after this storm and doesn't get time to dry up, there could be some pretty big flooding in our near future. What will put the last nail in the coffin for this spring will be the amount of snow we recieve this winter, EC says in their monthly forcast that there will be below normal precipitation from a 2-4 month period from now, but others think otherwise, i.e. Steinbach Weather who predict a snowy winter so it's still up in the air...
ReplyDeleteNow, back to this storm, National Weather Service has issued a flood warning for parts of Minnesota/Manitoba border. Also, the snowfall Warning has been extended to all of North Dakota/Manitoba border. For Winnipeg I don't expect too much snow to accumulate, maybe a couple centimeters. For those down south, Fargo will recieve around 1-3 inches due to the surface temps being lower then here. Something else to note on this storm is that it has beaten the record for the lowest pressure ever recorded in a storm system in the US and interestingly enough weather models predict the pressure to keep going down. Lastly, Winnipeg has recieved about 40-45mm up to now (4pm), there is much more to come!!!
What year was the record maximum Lake Winnipeg level at Gimli (before tonight) At 9pm the lake was 719.6'
ReplyDeleteJim, I'm not too sure about that, I looked it up quickly, couldn't find much but all I know is that the waves went to crazy heights (6ft+) and many cottages got flooded in the interlake region. Various state of emergencies were called in many communitites where water breached their dikes or there was just too much rain to handle. This system goes down in the books as a crazy one, breaking records (lowest barometric pressure in a non tropical system) and as a destructive one for communities along the Winnipeg and Manitoba Lakes, mostly long the south basins.
ReplyDeleteLooking ahead now, a small impulse will be passing by tomorrow morning creating cloudy skies for most of the day but nothing more. Temps will be mostly a couple degrees below normal for the rest of the week/weekend because of all that cold air that has been drawn in from the system that has just moved on.
Regarding the tropics, there are three storms ("Invests") that have a chance of develloping into tropical depressions. Invest 90L has a 50% of develloping, 91L a 20% chance (I'd personally give it a 40% chance) and finally 92L has a 60% chance according to the NHC.
It's coming down! Yes folks, we have our first snowfall of the year here in Winnipeg. It's not expected to accumulate much tonight and most of it will melt tomorrow, thankfully for those who dislike winter. Weekend weather is looking nice and dry with highs around 7-8C.
ReplyDeleteIn the tropics (As expected we have 2 new named storms in the Atlantic, TS Shery (Invest 92L) that will have a minimal effect as it moves north towards Bermuda. However the latest TS to come up, TS Tomas (Invest 91L) is threatening the Lesser Antillies where hurricane warnings are flying, and furtheron might cause trouble around Puerto Rico or continue westerly towards Nicaragua.
The year of the last lake Winnipeg Gimli record was 1974. Closer to home the Red River also is about to set an October record for the second time this year. On Oct. 4th we were 1.2 meters (4 feet) higher than the Oct 24th 2008 record. We are 3 feet higher at noon today and forecast to rise another 1 to 2 feet by Nov 11th tying or obliterating the record set Nov 15th 2000.
ReplyDeleteInteresting, thanks Jim. A new post will be coming soon regarding this week.
ReplyDelete